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Electric Vehicles — briefly, then briefly again · tbb.ceo
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/monthly ·OCTOBER 2026 ·7 MIN READ ·10 STORIES + 12 EXTRAS

The Crossover

In October 2026, internal combustion vehicles fell below half of global new car sales for the first time, and European battery EVs outsold petrol and diesel combined for a full quarter. Meanwhile BYD dropped the Seagull below $10,000 with five-minute charging, China deployed megawatt chargers three times faster than anything the West is planning, and the US market bifurcated sharply between collapsing new sales and booming used EVs. The bottom line: the transition completed its crossing from edge case to default in October — the remaining contest is over price floors, charging speed, and which markets can keep pace with what Chinese manufacturing has made structurally inevitable.

01 / The Month

October 2026, ranked

10

ICE falls below 50% of global new car sales

Internal combustion vehicles made up less than half of all new cars sold globally in September 2026. Battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles collectively crossed the majority threshold for the first time in automotive history, led by China at 68% NEV penetration and Europe at 30% BEV market share.

Why it mattersWhen ICE drops below half, the transition ceases to be a projection. Insurance models, infrastructure investment, and OEM product planning all reset around a new default.

European BEVs outsell petrol and diesel combined for a full quarter

European buyers registered 710,580 battery electric vehicles against 655,540 pure ICE cars in Q3 2026 — the first full quarter in which BEVs alone exceeded all petrol and diesel registrations combined. Sub-25,000 euro EV sales are tracking at seven times last year's pace.

Why it mattersMonthly blips are dismissable; a full-quarter crossover is structural. Fleet buyers and insurers plan on quarters, not headlines.

BYD Seagull Gen 2 drops below $10,000 with five-minute charging

BYD released the second-generation Seagull starting at roughly $9,900 with higher trims featuring Flash Charging capable of 10-70% in five minutes. The sub-$10K EV with ultra-fast charging has not yet left China, but the price point makes the affordability gap between Chinese and Western automakers structural.

Why it mattersA $9,900 EV with five-minute charging is not a loss-leader experiment. It is BYD's volume floor, manufactured profitably at scale, and it resets what every other market considers an entry-level price.

China deploys megawatt chargers while the US plans for 750kW

Geely, BYD, and Chery deployed megawatt-level chargers across Chinese highways — Geely at 2,250 kW, BYD at 1,500 kW, Chery at 1,440 kW — delivering 300 miles of range in under five minutes. The US is still working out timelines for 750 kW infrastructure next year, a 3x gap at current targets.

Why it mattersWhen the charging-speed gap between China and the West becomes this large, it is no longer an infrastructure detail. It is a consumer-expectation divergence that shapes purchase decisions.

BYD widens quarterly delivery lead over Tesla to 275,000 units

BYD reported 762,478 battery-electric deliveries in Q3, up 31% YoY. Tesla delivered 486,532, down 2%. The 275,000-unit quarterly gap is the largest single-quarter divergence on record. BYD now employs over 1 million people — more than Toyota, GM, Ford, and Tesla combined.

Why it mattersThe gap is widening, not narrowing. BYD's vertical integration at million-person scale structurally compresses pricing in every market it enters, and no Western competitor can replicate it without decades of investment.

US new EV sales crater 41% while used EVs surge 21%

September US data showed new BEV registrations falling 40.7% year-on-year after federal incentive expiry, while used EV sales jumped 21.2% as 243,000 off-lease vehicles entered the pre-owned market. Average used EV prices fell below $25,000. The market is not retreating — it is bifurcating sharply along a price line.

Why it mattersThe bifurcation reveals the real demand shape: price-sensitive buyers were waiting, not indifferent. The policy question is whether the US can keep manufacturing these vehicles domestically at the prices buyers will actually pay.

Tesla Q3: margins recover to 18.4%, but Cybercab ships without autonomous FSD

Tesla reported its highest automotive gross margin since before the price-cut cycle at 18.4% on 468,000 deliveries, but net income fell 8% YoY. The bigger revelation: Cybercab production will begin with human supervision required, as FSD is not yet approved for unsupervised operation. Tesla also admitted it is now building HD maps for FSD after years of dismissing them.

Why it mattersSelling a steeringless car that requires human supervision is either a bold bet on imminent regulatory approval or a product that does not yet do the thing it was designed to do. The maps pivot quietly validates what rivals have been doing all along.

Ford EV sales collapse 80%; Fathom pickup targets $30K with V2H

Ford EV sales fell roughly 80% YoY in Q3, pushing its entire near-term recovery onto the Fathom compact electric pickup at sub-$30,000 with vehicle-to-home charging integrated at launch. The Fathom is the first US-made EV pickup at that price, with bidirectional inverter hardware bundled rather than sold separately.

Why it mattersFord bet its EV recovery on a single affordable truck. The V2H bundling at mass-market price is the trigger the category needed — but the 80% collapse makes the Fathom's success existential, not aspirational.

VW Group battery recall expands ninefold to 85,000 vehicles

A VW Group battery recall that started at 9,048 Audi Q4 e-trons for a cell-tab welding defect expanded to over 85,000 vehicles across multiple nameplates in 48 hours. Owners must cap charging at 80% indefinitely. Meanwhile VW's US EV sales collapsed 90% in Q3, though European pre-orders for its affordable EV family reached 150,000.

Why it mattersA recall that expands by an order of magnitude in two days suggests the original scope was either incomplete or deliberately conservative. VW's divergence between European hope and US-quality reality was the month's starkest split.

Waymo scales to 20,000 robotaxis across six US cities, targets Toronto

Waymo lifted invite-only restrictions in three new US cities in a single day, bringing its public-access markets to six, and announced plans to quintuple its fleet to 20,000 vehicles by end of 2027 ahead of a reported IPO. Toronto was named as its first international city. The gap between Waymo and every other autonomous taxi provider widened further.

Why it mattersMulti-city commercial scale at this pace makes the competition increasingly theoretical. Naming a specific fleet number ahead of an IPO turns a growth trajectory into a financial commitment investors will track quarterly.
02 / Also

Worth knowing

12
GM unveils 4th-gen platform with first production LMR battery
General Motors revealed a new EV architecture anchored by what it claims is the first automotive-production lithium manganese-rich prismatic cell, targeting 33% higher energy density than LFP without cobalt dependency.
thedriven.io ↗
Rivian climbs to second-largest US EV brand
Rivian moved from tenth to second in US EV brand rankings, displacing Chevrolet and trailing only Tesla — the largest single-year brand-rank gain in the US EV market. Purpose-built platforms are outcompeting retrofitted ICE architecture.
electrek.co ↗
BYD Han EV: 1,000 km range at $35,000
BYD launched the Da Han EV sedan claiming over 1,000 km CLTC range on a second-generation Blade LFP pack at roughly $35,200 — the first time a mainstream mass-market sedan cleared that threshold.
electrek.co ↗
Tesla Semi begins mass-production deliveries
Tesla confirmed mass-production Class 8 Semi deliveries have started, completing the transition from prototype to commercial fleet product after years of delays. FedEx ordered 2,000 electric trucks in a separate fleet commitment.
insideevs.com ↗
VW confirms sub-20,000 euro EV for 2027
Volkswagen will bring a sub-20,000 euro electric car to market in 2027 based on the ID. EVERY1 concept with a 37 kWh LFP battery and Rivian-developed software architecture, alongside four affordable models unveiled at Paris Motor Show.
electrek.co ↗
UK locks EV company car tax rates through 2031
The UK Autumn Budget published a full company car tax schedule for EVs through 2030-31, rising from 4% to 10% versus 35-37% for petrol, alongside a 100 million pound charger fund and 2028 pay-per-mile road tax.
driveelectric.co.uk ↗
VW electric Jetta: 285 miles for under $12,000 in China
Volkswagen launched an all-electric Jetta in China at roughly $11,700 with 285 miles CLTC range, undercutting BYD — demonstrating legacy OEMs can compete on cost, but only by designing for Chinese manufacturing economics.
electrek.co ↗
Tesla FSD clears first European regulatory hurdle
The Netherlands issued the first EU member-state formal approval for Tesla FSD on public roads. Tesla is pursuing national approvals in parallel under existing type-approval frameworks.
ir.tesla.com ↗
Leapmotor begins European production via Stellantis
Chinese EV brand Leapmotor started producing vehicles at Stellantis plants in Europe, becoming the first Chinese brand to bypass EU tariffs through local manufacturing.
insideevs.com ↗
Chinese EVs found tariff backdoor into Western markets at 40% off
At least four Chinese brands are re-exporting EVs through FTA countries including Morocco, Turkey, and Mexico — arriving 35-40% below MSRP and technically circumventing import duties.
electrek.co ↗
Dongfeng solid-state battery clears cold tests at 350 Wh/kg
Dongfeng's 350 Wh/kg semi-solid battery passed extreme cold weather testing and enters pilot production for 2027, while a 400 Wh/kg all-solid-state variant targets 2028.
m.energytrend.com ↗
Tesla-SpaceX merger advances to board committees
Both Tesla and SpaceX formed dedicated board committees to explore a merger. The Delaware Court of Chancery flagged Musk's dual roles and governance concerns days later.
electrek.co ↗
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