Global Warming Doubled in Pace, Confirmed at 98% Statistical Certainty
Potsdam Institute researchers publishing in Geophysical Research Letters stripped natural climate variability from observational data and confirmed long-term warming has accelerated to approximately 0.35 degrees C per decade -- nearly double the 0.2 degrees C rate recorded between 1970 and 2015.
- Natural fluctuations including El Nino, volcanic aerosols, and solar variance were methodically separated before analysis
- 98% certainty clears the bar for effectively settled science in attribution; the acceleration is measured, not modelled
- At 0.35 degrees per decade, the 1.5 degrees C Paris threshold arrives roughly a decade sooner than older projections indicated