Human Warming Severs 400-Year Indian–Pacific Ocean Coupling
A WHOI study combining coral, tree-ring, and stalagmite records with climate models found that the atmospheric link between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans — stable across major volcanic disruptions for four centuries — has been breaking down since the 1980s under greenhouse gas forcing, altering ENSO predictability and global tropical rainfall patterns.
- Decoupling began in the 1980s and is accelerating; prior volcanic disruptions recovered within years, this one is not
- Breakdown affects Walker circulation, which drives monsoon reliability across South Asia and East Africa
- Existing El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole prediction models were calibrated on data from the now-defunct coupled regime